StackedAI screens neoclouds on eight dimensions, applied across 31 operators, before any lending, leasing or investment (StackedAI analysis, Neocloud Distress Screen, Aug 2026). Getting it wrong is expensive: wholesale colocation deals with neocloud tenants have stalled over credit risk, including one that failed at $155 to 160 per kW on a 15-year term (Data Center Knowledge, Apr 2026).
This supporting page to the stranded GPU assets pillar sets out the dimensions as a checklist, the five term-sheet questions, and how advisors, lenders and landlords use the result. The dimensions are public; scores on named operators are not.
What are the eight dimensions of the screen?
Green survives a sustained pricing decline; red does not; amber depends on terms that need to be read.
| Dimension | Green | Amber | Red |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Customer concentration and tenor | Several hyperscaler or AI-lab customers on take-or-pay beyond debt maturity | One dominant customer, or tenor shorter than the debt | Mostly on-demand or short-tenor |
| 2. GPU generation vs debt maturity | Current generation; debt matures inside its commercial life | Mixed Hopper and Blackwell | Prior generation; debt matures after it ages out, relying on residual of about 15% of cost (StackedAI analysis, AI Compute Partnership Returns Model, Jul 2026) |
| 3. Utilization floor and take-or-pay coverage | Minimums cover lease plus debt service | Minimums cover the lease only | Fixed costs depend on spot rates, which fell from above $8 to under $3 per H100-hour (StackedAI analysis, Stranded Asset Report, Aug 2026) |
| 4. Colocation lease fixed-cost ratio | Small share of contracted revenue; coterminous | Material share, or outlives customer contracts | Outlives contracts by years, with prepayment or parent guarantees |
| 5. Refresh obligations | None, or customer-funded | Required, with a pricing reset | Operator-funded with no reset |
| 6. Change-of-control and termination | Contracts and lease survive a sale or lender step-in | Survive with customer consent | Terminate on insolvency or change of control: “a building full of orphaned hardware” (StackedAI analysis, Neocloud Distress Screen, Aug 2026) |
| 7. SPV and bankruptcy-remote structure | GPUs, contracts and financing in a bankruptcy-remote SPV | SPV exists; contracts sit at the parent | One entity; all creditors compete for the same estate |
| 8. Power position | Owned power or behind-the-meter generation | Long-term colocation lease at 1% vacancy (JLL, North America Data Center Report Midyear 2026, Aug 2026): valuable, not owned | Short-term colocation; no control of the power position |
The dimensions interact. A red on dimension 3 is survivable if dimension 1 is green, because contracted minimums create the floor. A red on dimension 6 turns every other dimension red at the moment of sale.
What five questions should be answered before any GPU term sheet?
On a specific deal StackedAI asks five questions before any term sheet is signed (StackedAI analysis, Neocloud Distress Screen, Aug 2026).
- Is the revenue share gross or net? A share calculated after power, colocation and operating costs can be reduced to nothing by allocations the investor does not control. Dimensions 3 and 4.
- What is the take-or-pay floor, and what is utilization by generation? Blended utilization hides an idle prior-generation fleet. Dimensions 2 and 3.
- Who consents to discounting? If the operator can cut rates to hold utilization, the investor’s share falls with them. Dimension 3.
- What is the refresh obligation on a generation change? Who funds it, and whether pricing resets. Dimension 5.
- What are the termination and change-of-control terms? Without survival, the investor’s claim is on hardware alone. Dimensions 6 and 7.
How do restructuring advisors use the screen?
Before an engagement it is an early-warning list. Infrastructure vendors see distress six to eighteen months before it is public (StackedAI analysis, Stranded Asset Report, Aug 2026), and the screen shows which operators are most exposed when pricing moves or a refinancing window closes. With Microsoft alone committing more than $60B to neoclouds (Bloomberg, Nov 2025) and BloombergNEF tracking more than $100B of hyperscaler-to-neocloud compute leases (BloombergNEF, Mar 2026), one customer’s change of posture moves several operators at once.
Once an engagement begins, dimension 7 says which entity holds what, dimension 6 whether a going-concern sale is possible, and dimension 8 what strategic buyers will pay for; see what happens when a neocloud fails.
How do lenders, landlords and sponsors use the screen?
A GPU lender uses it to set advance rate and structure. Dimension 2 sets the collateral curve, covered on the GPU depreciation page; dimensions 6 and 7 decide whether enforcement yields a going concern or a warehouse of racks, so an amber score there means requiring assignment of customer contracts to the SPV and consent over change of control.
A landlord uses it to price credit support. An operator green on dimensions 1 and 3 can be offered a long term with modest security; one that is amber will be asked for prepayment, a parent guarantee or a hyperscaler backstop such as Google’s backing of about $1.3B of TeraWulf’s lease obligations to Fluidstack (TeraWulf, press release, Oct 2025). A landlord also reads dimension 8 in reverse: if the operator does not control its power position, the landlord does, and its downside on default is re-letting at 1% vacancy (JLL, North America Data Center Report Midyear 2026, Aug 2026).
Sponsors who own the building use it to decide what GPU exposure to take: debt or preferred, never common equity, because in StackedAI’s model the GPU-only operator returns 0.30x MOIC while the building owner returns 6.30x on 28% of the equity (StackedAI analysis, AI Compute Partnership Returns Model, Jul 2026). The power dimension is covered on the PE power-risk underwriting page.
Key terms
- Take-or-pay: a clause under which the customer pays for a minimum volume of capacity whether or not it uses it.
- Utilization floor: the minimum share of fleet capacity for which revenue is contractually guaranteed.
- Refresh obligation: a contractual requirement to replace or upgrade hardware when a new generation is released.
- Change-of-control clause: a provision allowing a counterparty to terminate or renegotiate if ownership of the other party changes.
How StackedAI applies this
StackedAI maintains the 31-operator screen as the intake tool for its Stranded Asset Report track and updates scores as contracts, refinancings and hyperscaler commitments are disclosed. In lender and landlord engagements it translates the eight dimensions into advance rates, security packages and consent rights; in sponsor engagements it uses the five term-sheet questions to decide whether any GPU participation is appropriate. Engagement models are on the advisory services page.
Frequently asked questions
What is the most important dimension in the neocloud distress screen?
Utilization floor and take-or-pay coverage, because it sets how much of the fixed cost base is covered by contract rather than spot demand. An operator covered by hyperscaler take-or-pay can survive a pricing decline; one exposed to spot rates that fell from above $8 to under $3 per H100-hour cannot (StackedAI analysis, Stranded Asset Report, Aug 2026).
Why does the screen compare GPU generation with debt maturity?
Because a loan that matures after the fleet’s generation has aged out must be repaid from the residual value of old hardware, which StackedAI models at about 15% of cost at the end of a five-year term (StackedAI analysis, AI Compute Partnership Returns Model, Jul 2026). Hopper and Blackwell fleets with the same maturity are in different positions.
What does ‘revenue share gross versus net’ mean in a GPU term sheet?
Whether the investor’s share of compute revenue is calculated before or after the operator deducts power, colocation, network and operating costs. A net share can be reduced to nothing by cost allocations the investor does not control. StackedAI treats an undefined or net-only share as a red flag.
Is a hyperscaler backstop enough to make a neocloud green?
Not on its own. Google backing about $1.3B of TeraWulf’s lease obligations to Fluidstack (TeraWulf, Oct 2025) improves the concentration and take-or-pay dimensions for the obligations it covers. It does not change the generation, refresh, change-of-control or SPV dimensions, and claims outside the backstop are not protected.
Does StackedAI publish the scores on named neoclouds?
No. The eight dimensions and the red, amber and green criteria are public. Scores on the 31 operators are shared only within engagements, because they depend on non-public contract terms and change as contracts are signed and refinanced (StackedAI analysis, Neocloud Distress Screen, Aug 2026).
Sources
- StackedAI analysis, Neocloud Distress Screen (31 companies), Aug 2026 (internal, dimensions and criteria only)
- StackedAI analysis, AI Compute Partnership Returns Model, Jul 2026 (internal, illustrative)
- StackedAI analysis, Stranded Asset Report, Aug 2026 (internal)
- Data Center Knowledge, Neocloud Storm Gathers as Data Center Deals Stall Over Credit Risk, Apr 2026, https://www.datacenterknowledge.com/cloud/neocloud-storm-gathers-as-data-center-deals-stall-over-credit-risk
- JLL, North America Data Center Report Midyear 2026, Aug 2026, https://www.jll.com/en-us/insights/market-dynamics/north-america-data-centers
- Bloomberg, Microsoft neocloud deals cross $60 billion, Nov 2025, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-04/microsoft-neocloud-deals-cross-60-billion-in-ai-spending-frenzy
- BloombergNEF, AI Data Center Build Advances at Full Speed: Five Things to Know, Mar 2026, https://about.bnef.com/insights/commodities/ai-data-center-build-advances-at-full-speed-five-things-to-know/
- TeraWulf, press release: TeraWulf Expands Strategic Partnership with Fluidstack Through New 168 MW AI Compute Joint Venture, Oct 2025, https://investors.terawulf.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/121/terawulf-expands-strategic-partnership-with-fluidstack-through-new-168-mw-ai-compute-joint-venture